NASA’s AI Tool DAGGER Predicts Impact of Solar Storms on Earth with a 30-minute Warning
NASA has developed an artificial intelligence (AI) tool that can predict the impact of solar storms on Earth, giving governments a chance to prepare and protect critical infrastructure. The AI tool, called DAGGER, analyses spacecraft measurements of the solar wind and can predict where a storm will strike with a 30-minute warning.[0] The tool uses historical data and real-time measurements from space to predict the scope of solar storms on Earth. When governments receive early warnings, they can take action to protect sensitive systems and move satellites to safer orbits for added protection.[1] DAGGER has been tested against two geomagnetic storms that took place in August 2011 and March 2015 and was able to accurately forecast the storm’s impacts globally.[2]
AI has played a significant role in weather prediction for almost three decades, assisting forecasters in generating faster and more accurate forecasts. The possibility of AI revolutionizing weather forecasting by autonomously predicting various weather conditions such as sunshine, rainfall, wind, and snow, without the dependence on conventional human-built models, is now within reach. The potential for AI integration in weather prediction is enormous as the field advances. Although the quandary of completely replacing conventional models remains unsolved, AI is consistently showcasing its worth by aiding forecasters, enhancing precision, and furnishing significant data to the masses. In the future, AI has the potential to completely transform the way we forecast and comprehend weather patterns, provided that we continue to invest in research.
Coronal mass ejections, which are electrically charged plasma, are emitted by the Sun and cause solar storms.[2] Geomagnetic storms caused by charged particles have the potential to disrupt Earth's protective magnetic field, leading to technological system disruptions and blackouts.[2] The Carrington Event is the term used to describe the most severe solar storm ever recorded, which took place in 1859.[3] The phenomenon ignited flames in telegraph stations and produced auroral spectacles visible globally.[4] If such an incident were to happen today, it would result in significant power outages and cause substantial harm to the industrial sector.[5]
The use of AI to replace entire models is still a topic of debate.[6] The reliability of AI for such a task is yet to be determined, as the science is not mature enough.[6] It is uncertain if AI-powered platforms such as ChatGPT generate weather reports independently or extract them from models created by humans, even though their forecasts appear to be authentic.[6] A related challenge arises from the fact that AI has the capability to predict extreme weather events with precision.
However, DAGGER can offer predictions for the whole of the Earth's surface, another advantage over earlier systems which were challenged by their own computational restrictions and limited to where they might calculate a storm to hit. DAGGER's ability to swiftly predict and utilize these predictions on a global scale marks a significant advancement in accurately anticipating and addressing potential dangers caused by solar storms. The launch of the platform on an open source system is perfectly timed to gather a wealth of data during the Sun's 11-year solar cycle, reaching its peak in 2025.[5]
In a world that relies heavily on technology, the impact of storms, which can vary from mild to severe, has the potential to cause greater disruption.[2] The severe consequences are brought to mind by historical events.[0] Previous solar storms have been so intense that they resulted in the closure of schools and businesses, as well as igniting fires.[0] DAGGER offers a crucial window to mitigate the severe consequences of these storms on critical infrastructure, particularly power grids. Mitigating the potential damage can be achieved by taking actions such as temporarily shutting down vulnerable systems or changing the orbits of satellites.[0]
0. “New NASA AI: 30-minute advance warning for solar storms” DIGIT.FYI, 15 May. 2023, https://www.digit.fyi/new-nasa-ai-will-predict-solar-storms/
1. “NASA's Groundbreaking AI Predicts Solar Storms With 30-Minute Advance Warning” Indiatimes.com, 15 May. 2023, https://www.indiatimes.com/technology/science-and-future/nasa-ai-predicts-solar-storms-with-30-minute-advance-warning-602636.html
2. “Nasa’s new AI gives ‘30 minutes of advance warning’ before killer solar superstorms strike Earth” Yahoo Movies Canada, 15 May. 2023, https://ca.movies.yahoo.com/nasa-ai-gives-30-minutes-045443103.html
3. “NASA may now predict killer solar storms ‘30 minutes’ before they hit Earth” Hindustan Times, 15 May. 2023, https://www.hindustantimes.com/science/solar-storms-nasa-can-predict-before-30-minustes-using-ai-deep-learning-101684141665324.html
4. “NASA might be able to use AI to predict dangerous solar storms” The Jerusalem Post, 15 May. 2023, https://www.jpost.com/science/article-743064
5. “NASA: We'd Have a 30-Minute Warning Before a Killer Solar Storm Hits Earth” ScienceAlert, 15 May. 2023, https://www.sciencealert.com/nasa-wed-have-a-30-minute-warning-before-a-killer-solar-storm-hits-earth
6. “The Future of Weather Prediction: Artificial Intelligence Takes Center Stage – CityLife” CityLife, 11 May. 2023, https://citylife.capetown/ai/the-future-of-weather-prediction-artificial-intelligence-takes-center-stage/22445/
